On Saturday the 18th November 2017, peace loving Zimbabweans led by the veterans of the 1970s independence war converged at the Zimbabwe Grounds in Highfields, Harare to demonstrate support for the maneuvers made by the military to put a full stop on Mugabe’s dynasty. Leaders from political parties and civil society delivered solidarity messages which were designed to send a clear signal to SADC, AU and the International Community that the army mutiny has the full support of ordinary Zimbabweans who have been languishing under the Mugabe regime.
Never mind the internal contradictions in the ruling Zanu-PF and its factional leadership succession wars, the action taken by the Zimbabwe Defence Forces resonated with the masses. The army intervention to stop Grace Mugabe and the G40 was like a second liberation for Zimbabweans. For the first time Zimbabweans tasted the sweetness of freedom of association and assembly. Nay, freedom of speech, as Zimbabweans marched to the precincts of State House. This is the first time all Zimbabweans across the political divide have converged on a key National Question. This is how it should be. All along Zimbabweans had not risen above partisan lines on anything. The mass demonstrations in my view should mark the beginning of a national consciousness and patriotism among all Zimbabweans.
Mugabe still remains with, by negotiating his peaceful retirement as head of Zanu-PF and by implication as head of state. I call this a soft landing approach rather than an outright military coup.
The question then is: When Mugabe goes, what next for Zimbabwe?
Many political pundits are quick to suggest a Transitional Government to stabilize the economy and create conditions for free and fair elections under Sadc, AU and International supervision. This is like jumping the gun. This is what I think should be the trajectory.
1. The military must continue to maintain peace and security; law and order and protect the country’s sovereignty. The military must stop any 3rd force hell bent on killing people in order to create a civil war.
2. Mugabe must go and allow Zanu-PF to achieve its peaceful internal leadership succession.
3. The provision of the Constitution must be followed regarding the replacement of Mugabe as Head of State. Either through the Zanu-PF party leadership succession route or the Parliamentary impeachment route.
3. In terms of the Constitution, the next Head of State before the 2018 elections will be fielded by Zanu-PF party.
4. That new Head of State will complete the remainder of Mugabe’s term of office up to the scheduled 2018 elections which must not be postponed.
5. The new Head of State should exercise his prerogative to form a government that will run the country until the next election.
6. The new government should embark on electoral, political, instititional, constitutional reforms in order to guarantee free and fair elections in Zimbabwe, which are a necessary condition to return the country to legitimacy. This is what I would call SCENARIO ONE. This scenario will ensure that elections are not postponed and are held in 2018 as scheduled.
SECOND SCENARIO
- The New President sets up a Transitional Government or so-called Transitional Authority to run the country. This scenario will mean the postponement of elections sine die until the following is achieved:
(a) emergency economic stabilization and recovery program
(b) Agenda for the restoration of democracy, human rights, rule of law, national healing and good economic and political governance of the country.
(c) Full Implementation of the Constitution; Institutional Reforms; Political Reforms; Electoral Reforms including the Reform of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission.
(d) Resolving the national debt question and re-engaging the international community
(e) Resolving the currency-cum liquidity crisis in a comprehensive manner
(f) Rehabilitation of infrastructure
(g) Putting Zimbabwe back to work
(h) de-Zanunize state institutions
(i) Recovering local government and social services delivery
(j) Arresting Corruption, among other issues.
The agenda of a broad based Transitional Arrangement would require 3 to 5 years to implement. For all intents and purposes, the Transitional Authority would be another Government of National Unity by another name (minus Mugabe). But the necessary constitutional amendments would have to be done to give effect to the consummation of the Transitional Government. Finally under this second scanario, A Presidential Transition Act would have to be enacted by Parliament to guide the peaceful transition and transfer of power along the Ghanaian model. In my view, the Transitional Government is a very contentious issue that will require a Referendum to decide. Short of a Referendum, the Transitional Authority will not get broad political support and will suffer the same fate as the Government of National Unity (GNU of 2009-2013).
CONCLUSION
The removal of Mugabe by all means necessary is now irreversible. Mugabe must cooperate in order to salvage any residual legacy that might remain to his credit. A new Zanu-PF must learn its lessons in democracy and respecting the will of the people. The Zimbabwe Defence Forces must now defend, promote and protect the Constitution not individuals. Elections must be free and fair - observed by the International Community, Sadc and AU. And the Constitution, rule of law and security of the person and protection of property rights must define a new governance culture in Zimbabwe. Zimbabweans must have love, unity in diversity, defend and protect their hard earned independence and national sovereignty. The economy must come first and foremost before politics. We need Change with Stability. Morgan Tsvangirai’s ascendancy can only be delayed not denied. ASANTE SANA.
Disclaimer: Dr Tapiwa Mashakada is the former Minister of Investment Promotion and the views expressed in this article are my own personal views which do not necessarily reflect the views of the MDC-T or the MDC Alliance. This is purely an academic article to provoke serious debate.
